With the novel coronavirus we are seeing an unprecedented isolation of one country to stop the spread of disease. While technically it is not too different to the flu, the newness and potential to evolve are very worrisome.
Even if this disease is contained outside of China, it is looking like it will not be snuffed out within their borders. In theory, China could and the world might have a very difficult decision to make – open the borders and cause more infection and deaths (even though they are small numbers in the greater scheme of things), versus the benefits of tourism and free trade.
Even if the disease is contained within China, the template is now in place. Any new virus will be reacted to swifter and harsher. At least China has the infrastructure and practice in place to perhaps nullify it. However the other similar cases have emerged from the “East” side of Africa, and they would not respond as quickly nor do they (I’m generalising) have a population that is so trained to do as they are told.
It is totally possible that Great Split starts with disease, and then everything else just becomes to difficult. After all, current splitting comes from fear regarding economies, security and territory. And fear of dropping dead from a mystery illness trumps those.