There is a future that I don’t think anyone has thought of, or at least few people are discussing — our planet split into two worlds that have nothing to do with each other. Essentially East and West.
And it will occur when considerations regarding ethics and technology combine. Blame China. Well, actually, blame us for buying Chinese goods and enabling this potential outcome.
- China is using technology to enable a surveillance state straight out of dystopian fiction.
- Last week there was news of possibly designer babies being made in China using CRISPR.
- And China is going all out to win the AI war.
If they do succeed in having a superior AI system/being to the West, then it could wreak havoc on everything, especially jobs and finance.
Elon Musk has rightfully warned of the dangers of AI, and the need for safeguards. China won’t have ethical restraints. China will make an autonomous robot army, while the USA will be tethered to requiring human oversight of all robot actions involving weaponry.
Meanwhile, from fears of spying, the West is forbidding Chinese technology to be used in things like 5G phone networks. While China blocks their citizens from seeing foreign websites.
China is making a big push to become economic friends throughout the world, targeting less affluent countries. In Africa they are getting long leases on land, via corrupt local leaders, to secure food supplies for decades into the future. They are building a city in Pakistan just for Chinese people.
And we had (will have again?) Donald Trump, who has just the personality to actually go through with some of his grandiose threats. He could easily start a trade war with China that ends up with zero trade between the two nations.
So here is the prediction: two worlds, East and West, that have absolutely nothing to do with each other. The physical boundaries could be complicated — think the thin corridor that linked West Berlin to West Germany — although I think primarily based on continents. Shipping routes might dictate whether a country sides with the West or East.
I expect that the East will be contiguous, and that will make things much easier. Donald Trump-like walls will go up.
EAST:
- China
- Russia
- South East Asia
- Middle East
- Turkey
- East Europe
- Pakistan
- Northern Africa, down to Angola and Uganda
WEST:
- All the Americas
- Western Europe
- Japan
- South Korea
- PNG
- Pacific Islands
- Australia
- NZ
- India / Sri Lanka
- Southern Africa
Certain borders will suffer unknown consequences, although those areas could be used for diplomatic relations. There will have to be some level of communication between the worlds, and so these borders are logical places. We will need to discuss things like climate change, inform each other about volcanic eruptions and so on.
Borders:
- North / South Korea
- Japan / China
- India / Pakistan & China
- Northern Africa / Southern Africa
- Australia / Indonesia
- Eastern Europe / Western Europe
Technology in each world will grow in isolation. Spying will become a major activity, keeping tabs on what the other world is up to. Possibly satellites will all get shot down, to stop spying.
The good news is that each should be happy with their own world. The East gets to oppress, while the West has freedom.
The East will suffer economically initially, but China and Russia will grow from exploiting the resources and cheap labour of Africa and SE Asia.
The West will suffer economically initially, because we won’t have cheap stuff from China any more. But that will work itself out, and free people will perform better than oppressed people.
Wars should disappear. The West already doesn’t have wars any more, and China/Russia will dominate the other countries very quickly with military bases, before the East/West split occurs.
The reasons for wars between East/West will disappear, because with zero contact there will be zero reasons to act or react. Possibly there might be some water issues between the two. Possibly the East uses weather modification that affects the West negatively.
There is a small chance that one day the East tries to takeover the West by first hobbling it via disease or electromagnetic pulses. They won’t try traditional warfare or nukes.
When will this happen? If Trump is re-elected, before his second term is out the split will be seen as inevitable. Otherwise, it will come down to when the ethics of AI are conflicting, or it will be when neither sells any technology to the other — I think by 2030.
Or, it may depend on the expansion of territories. Russia is keen to get the Soviet Union happening again, while China seems keen on controlling Afghanistan.
So if you want to travel to the countries that will end up in the East, the time is now.